Monday, 10 May 2010

Monte Carlo Optimisation of Control Limits #8

The third, repeated MC test for periods 25 to 50 give these results: for periods 26 and 30 only the peaks and troughs occur between the ucl and lcl zones without actually entering the zones, and in each case the number of times this happened represents less than 0.01% of the total runs. At all other periods the peaks and troughs of the sine waves occur within their respective zones.

I think that to continue with MC testing on theoretical sine waves would result in diminishing value, so this third MC test will be the last on such theoretical wave forms. These last few tests have resulted in different optimised ucl and lcl multipliers for 3 "ranges" of periods: periods 14 and less, 15 to 24, and 25 and greater.

The next step will be to rewrite the indicator with these new optimised multipliers and test it on actual market prices.

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